Is The Theory of Realism Still Relevant?
The theory of realism in international relations has always been regarded as the dominant analytical tool in the international space, since the times of Thucydides after the Peloponnesian War. However, this theory has never seen such challenges since the Cold War ended. Many regarded that the pessimistic theory of realism has seen its end, and the new pro-liberal order will prevail where liberal values of trade, governance of international institutions, and democratic traditions will determine the relations between states. Yet, the emergence of a multipolar world, just a couple of decades after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, has seen the revival of realism to, once again, dominate international affairs.
Realism emphasizes power politics. National interests and security of a state take precedence above all else. Yet, even in the post-Cold War order, we see that the return of realpolitik of the 20th century is imminent. In the 73rd UNGA session, US President Donald Trump declared
“We reject the ideology of Globalism and embrace the doctrine of Patriotism.”
This statement by the president of the state, which laid the foundations of the current liberal order, is a clear indication that the liberal values that maintain the status quo is under threat.
The rise of realism has also been accelerated by multiple factors. One of them can be associated with the neo-conservative approach of the US in the mid-2000s, which led to the Iraq and Afghan War. The forceful and violent implementation of western perception of democracy in the Middle East and the invasion of Afghanistan forced the states in the international structure to reevaluate the liberal values. It prompted the basic question: If a unipolar world that is governed by international institutions fails in maintaining stability, then is the liberal order credible enough to follow? The anti-American sentiment produced as the result of the neo-conservative approach also had an impact on the international structure created after the Cold-War.
Power politics is the main trait of realism, and economic power is no different. The rise of China and the dissolution of the Soviet Union can be fairly reasoned to the increase or decrease of their respective economic power. The second cause for the emergence of realism can clearly be credited to the global economic crisis of 2008. The global economic slowdown forced the states to prioritize national security, which increased trade protectionism globally. For example, the anti-EU sentiment in the United Kingdom caused by the recession precipitated a series of events that eventually resulted in its exit from the EU. The trade war between China and the US in 2019 also shows that realism is, once again, starting to significantly influence the foreign policy of great powers.
Even though renowned scholars such as Francis Fukuyama declared that realism became outdated after the end of the Cold War, the Arab Spring protests and especially the Syrian Civil War demonstrated that realpolitik is being practiced at an increasing rate. Great powers such as the US and Russia find themselves at opposites sides of the conflicts, vying for influence in the region to promote their own national interests. Regional power conflicts have also flared up in recent years, such as the Yemen Conflict where Saudi Arabia and Iranian proxies are at war competing for regional influence.
The popular rise of right-wing parties in Europe, the Americas, and South Asia clearly indicate that states are beginning to resort to realist practices openly. Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Narendra Modi in India, and several heads of states in Europe have brazenly defied the established liberal order in which the rules of international institutions take priority. Some examples of realist policies of these states include the unilateral annexation of the disputed territory of Jammu & Kashmir by India which goes against UNSC Resolutions, the encouragement of deforestation of the Amazon by Brazil which was protested by many NGOs such as Greenpeace and the exit of Britain from European Union.
The year 2020 is turning out to be an inflection point in contemporary human history. The COVID-19 pandemic has not just caused an economic crisis but also changed the way people interact with each other. This social and economic change will ultimately trickle from the bottom toward the decision-making entities at the top which will compel states to reassess their behavior with other states. The resulting reassessment of foreign policy is expected to be realist in nature, where states will try to capitalize on the changing global environment to strengthen their geopolitical status. For example, the race among great powers to create the COVID-19 vaccine is not just a matter of providing public goods, but more of exhibiting technological advancement of a state, which increases the “soft power” of that state.
Throughout history, we have seen that realism and realist practices have never truly ended, but rather it was diminished to their lowest point when the Cold War ended. However, moving into the 21st century, instabilities in the international order has caused realism to reemerge as a relevant theory again. Even though the liberal world order established by the US after the Second World War has the potential to endure, the theory of realism displays clear signs that it will eventually become the dominant theory in analyzing international relations.
